The Environmental coin toss: There’s a 50:50 Chance we will pass the 1.5C Warming Threshold

A new report from the World Meteorological Organization shows that at least one year between 2022 and 2026 our Earth will surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold of warming that we are desperately trying to avoid. This is paired with a 93% chance that the next five years will be the warmest years on record. This news feels quite grim but there is still hope if we take immediate action.

What does this mean?

First, this metric of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming may seem familiar to many. This is the same global warming threshold that was set in the 2015 Paris Climate Accord. As a reminder, the Paris agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Essentially this treaty holds all parties responsible for limiting global warming to 1.5C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

Essentially, this new report from the the World Meteorological Organization indicates that the pressure is on for us to make some drastic changes to ensure that, that 50:50 chance is in our favor and that we do not surpass that 1.5C goal. This will mean drastic changes for individuals and organizations alike. Each year, it seems that the chance that we surpass this goal is rising.

The Facts.

According to an article from CNN, “In 2015, the chances of world temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5C over the next five years were close to zero. Those odds have been inching up ever since as humans continue to emit greenhouse gas, primarily from the use of fossil fuels.”

This report does mention that surpassing the limit would likely be a temporary event and that temperatures could come back down. If we were to overshoot for even an entire year, this would not breach the threshold that is set within the Paris Agreement. However, it is indicative that we are walking an extremely fine line from permanent warming above that threshold. Unfortunately, science indicates that even a temporary overshoot could have catastrophic and lasting changes to our planet.

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet,” - WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

What are the impacts?

The first question many will have, is what are the impacts if we do go over that threshold? According to an article from NPR that references the most recent report from the IPCC some impacts we would see upon warming past 1.5C are as follows:

• Oceans will warm and in turn eliminate coral reefs and life. Its likely that at 1.5C 70-90% of coral reefs will die worldwide.

• Storms that were once extremely rare will become more frequent and more intense.

• Sea levels will rise leading more flooding of coastal cities.

• Heat waves and droughts will be more extreme.

The impacts we might experience are not limited to those listed above. Any warming will exasperate the signs and symptoms of global warming that we are already seeing today.

Photo by Nikola Jovanovic on Unsplash

Next steps.

Experts says that one of the best ways to combat this would be to achieve net zero or carbon neutrality. This means that we would be in a state in which the greenhouse gasses going into the atmosphere are either eliminated all together or are balanced out by removal of these gasses out of the atmosphere. This may happen through the use of innovative technology like what we are doing here at Sustaira, offsetting, and other methods such as tree planting to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Sources:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/10/world/climate-warming-warning-wmo-intl-scli/index.html

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1052198840/1-5-degrees-warming-climate-change#:~:text=Limiting%20temperature%20increases%20to%201.5,surges%20and%20higher%20high%20tides.

https://netzeroclimate.org/what-is-net-zero/

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/