The United Nation’s 2023 Emission Report Sheds Concerning Insight on our Progress Toward Net Zero Goals

Overview:

On November 20th, the United Nations released its 2023 Emissions Gap Report with an eye-catching headline, “Broken Record; Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)”. This report is the 14th annual edition in a series written by the world’s top climate scientists to look at future trends in global warming. The report highlights that the world will most likely not reach the agreed-upon 1.5 C degree target. Authors predicted temperatures will most likely rise between 2.5 - 2.9 C degrees , contingent on the fact that countries strive to meet their net-zero targets.

Global GHG Emissions Set a New Record in 2022
Greenhouse Gas emissions are on the rise as a new record of 57.2 gigatons of CO2 equivalent was set this year, an increase of 1.2% from the year prior. Reasons for this increase may be attributed to a full recovery of the transportation sector from the COVID-19 pandemic, or an increase in the industrial emission sector which accounted for ⅔ of emissions. Even though global primary energy consumption expanded, gas consumption declined by 3% - due to the energy crisis from the War in Ukraine. The energy growth was covered by renewable resources such as wind or solar power. Increases/decreases in emissions vary wildly across G20 countries (a coalition of the top 20 most wealthy countries), they accounted for 76% of global emissions. The United States, China, India, and Indonesia faced increases in GHG emissions while Brazil, the EU, and Russia showed decreases with their annual emissions. Within individual G20 countries, there is inequality within emission production, as the top 10 % of the highest income accounted for nearly half of emissions (48%), while the bottom 50% of the world population contributed to merely 12% of total emissions. Overall, economies must be limiting emissions growth to reach net zero targets; therefore, increases in emissions show the need for stricter regulation for the future.

Source: UN Emissions Gap Report 2023

Unequal Distribution of Emissions Among Countries

Comparing per capita emissions by country reveals that the United States contributes far more emissions than the global average, a disheartening notion as the country is publicly advocating for net zero solutions by 2050. The United States is tied with Russia as it contributes more than double the world average of CO2 per year at 13 tons of CO2. Overall the United States accounts for 4% of the population but has contributed to the increase of global warming by 17% since 1850. To compare this with other populated countries, India accounts for 18% of the population but has only added 5% of Greenhouse Gas emissions to date. The European Union, Indonesia, and Brazil remain at the average while the least developed countries contribute 2.2 tons of CO2 emissions per capita, and small islands add 4.2 tons of CO2 emissions per capita. This level of emissions inequality comments on the extent of quality of life in the United States and the constant struggle between improving standards of living while being cognisant of its impact on global warming.

Source: UN Emissions Gap Report 2023

Progress on Countries’ Net Zero Agreements

Since the Paris Agreement, nine countries have updated their emissions targets which brings the total amount of targets for reduced emissions to 149. If these estimated targets are implemented, it is expected to reduce total GHG emissions by 1.8 - 8.2 Gt of CO2 emissions by 2030. Disappointedly, as the number of emission reduction plans continues to grow, the confidence in their success remains low as none of the members of G20 are reducing their emissions at a rate that is consistent with meeting their net-zero targets. These net zero emission targets relied on the fact that reductions would be implemented starting in 2020; however, emissions have grown since that time which calls for even more costly alternatives to counteract the delayed action. The United Nations suggests that with current policy scenarios, there is a 33% chance we will meet the 1.5 degrees C target and a 66% chance the 2 degrees C target will be met over the of this century. These scenarios are dependent on the urgency countries take charge in enacting their net zero goals as expected target deadline years are rapidly approaching. Whether it be through carbon taxing, stronger regulation, or carbon capture the next decade will be crucial for predicting expected temperature increases.

Source: UN Emissions Gap Report 2023

Sources: https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y